RAND Forecasting Initiative

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 24, 2025 03:01PM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $1 billion	83%	84%	-1%	+5%
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion	14%	11%	+3%	-6%
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion	2%	3%	-1%	-1%
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion	1%	2%	-1%	+1%
More than or equal to $1.6 billion	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will any country announce a new national carbon tax or emissions trading system by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 04:55PM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	67%	65%	+2%	-12%
No	33%	35%	-2%	+12%

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 02:43AM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	3%	-2%	+2%
No	99%	97%	+2%	-2%

Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 02:43AM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	100%	+0%	+0%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
27 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 02:44AM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	98%	+1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
40 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 02:44AM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Latvia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Lithuania	0%	3%	-3%	+0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 02:44AM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 26, 2025 to May 26, 2026	Dec 26, 2025	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 26, 2025 to May 26, 2026	Dec 26, 2025	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
41 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 02:44AM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	5%	6%	-1%	+0%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Georgia	3%	3%	+0%	+0%
Kazakhstan	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
26 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 04:32AM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	3%	4%	-1%	-1%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations		Answer was correct

What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 04:32AM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 62%	0%	0%	+0%	0%
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%	0%	0%	+0%	0%
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%	3%	4%	-1%	-1%
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%	97%	96%	+1%	+1%
More than or equal to 74%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

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