RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 01:29PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	99%	+0%	+0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 01:29PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	98%	+1%	+0%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 01:29PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	98%	96%	+2%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	1%	2%	-1%	0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 01:29PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	99%	+1%	+0%

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 01:29PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	7%	-5%	+0%
No	98%	93%	+5%	+0%

Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 01:29PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	12%	20%	-8%	+0%
No	88%	80%	+8%	+0%

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 01:29PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	2%	+3%	+0%
No	95%	98%	-3%	+0%

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 01:29PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	10%	-5%	-3%
No	95%	90%	+5%	+3%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the U.S. be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 01:29PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	36%	42%	-6%	+2%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million	37%	35%	+2%	+0%
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million	14%	15%	-1%	-2%
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million	8%	5%	+3%	+0%
More than or equal to $650 million	5%	2%	+3%	+1%

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 01:29PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	10%	-6%	0%
No	96%	90%	+6%	0%

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