99th
Accuracy Rank

SOUZACaio

About:
Show more
Forecasted Questions

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2025 07:52PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Nov 17, 2025 to May 17, 2027 Feb 17, 2026 6%
No 100% Nov 17, 2025 to May 17, 2027 Feb 17, 2026 94%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2025 07:52PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 2%
No 98% 98%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2025 07:52PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Nov 17, 2025 to May 17, 2026 Dec 17, 2025 2%
No 99% Nov 17, 2025 to May 17, 2026 Dec 17, 2025 98%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2025 07:52PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Nov 17, 2025 to May 17, 2026 Dec 17, 2025 0%
No 100% Nov 17, 2025 to May 17, 2026 Dec 17, 2025 100%

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2025 07:52PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2025 08:29PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 28% 19%
No 72% 81%

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2025 08:29PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username