SandroAVL

About:

Started forecasting in GJP2.0, 2020 then at INFER (ARLIS-UMD) 2022, also collaborating with RANGE from Bertelsmann, and since 2023, very happy to learn & colaborate here at RAND RFI and Cultivate Labs.

Testing a mental model, based on a set of parameters to increase accuracy, identifying patterns of bias, in order to increase forecast's process gain.

Top Forecaster - Dec 2025

Top Forecaster - Nov 2025

Oracle - Bronze

Top Forecaster - Oct 2025

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Forecasted Questions

Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 06:35PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
U.S. Entity	87%	85%	+2%	0%
Non-U.S. Entity	62%	55%	+7%	+0%

Will any branch of the U.S. military have hypersonic weapons operationally deployed with field units, aboard naval vessels, or on aircraft by 30 April 2026?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 06:36PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	66%	35%	+31%	+0%
No	34%	65%	-31%	+0%

Will China's year-over-year GDP growth rate for Q2 2026 equal or exceed 5.0%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 06:36PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	29%	+1%	-1%
No	70%	71%	-1%	+1%

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 06:36PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
No	98%	98%	+0%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
53 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 06:36PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	2%	3%	-1%	0%
Latvia	2%	2%	+0%	0%
Lithuania	2%	2%	+0%	+0%

How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 06:36PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 4,499	5%	8%	-3%	+3%
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive	15%	11%	+4%	+0%
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive	65%	74%	-9%	-2%
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive	10%	6%	+4%	+0%
More than or equal to 6,000	5%	1%	+4%	+0%

Who will win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 06:36PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Iván Cepeda	35%	37%	-2%	0%
Sergio Fajardo	5%	8%	-3%	+0%
Abelardo de la Espriella	52%	43%	+9%	+0%
Other	8%	12%	-4%	+0%