Forecasted Questions
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
33 Forecasts
33 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 07, 2025 01:35PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Dec 07, 2025 01:35PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Dec 7, 2025 to Jun 7, 2026 | Jan 7, 2026 | 0% | +1% | 0% |
| No | 99% | Dec 7, 2025 to Jun 7, 2026 | Jan 7, 2026 | 100% | -1% | 0% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts
21 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 07, 2025 01:36PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Dec 07, 2025 01:36PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Not before 2026 | 99% | 98% | +1% | +0% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts
17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 07, 2025 05:29PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Dec 07, 2025 05:29PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | Dec 7, 2025 to Jun 7, 2026 | Jan 7, 2026 | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 98% | Dec 7, 2025 to Jun 7, 2026 | Jan 7, 2026 | 98% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts
25 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 07, 2025 10:38PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Dec 07, 2025 10:38PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 6% | 3% | +3% | +0% |
| Latvia | 5% | 2% | +3% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 4% | 3% | +1% | +0% |