Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 14, 2025 03:33PM UTC
(7 months ago)
Apr 14, 2025 03:33PM UTC
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 5% | 3% | +2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 14, 2025 03:33PM UTC
(7 months ago)
Apr 14, 2025 03:33PM UTC
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | 7% | +73% | +2% |
| No | 20% | 93% | -73% | -2% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 14, 2025 03:39PM UTC
(7 months ago)
Apr 14, 2025 03:39PM UTC
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | 19% | +51% | -19% |
| No | 30% | 81% | -51% | +19% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 22, 2025 02:55PM UTC
(7 months ago)
Apr 22, 2025 02:55PM UTC
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 100% | 67% | +33% | -1% |
| 30 days | 0% | 6% | -6% | -4% |
| 31-60 days | 0% | 6% | -6% | -1% |
| 61-90 days | 0% | 5% | -5% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 0% | 17% | -17% | +6% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 23, 2025 10:47PM UTC
(7 months ago)
Apr 23, 2025 10:47PM UTC
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | -5% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | -7% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 61% | 2% | +59% | -12% |
| Not before 2026 | 39% | 98% | -59% | +24% |