Santiago-Carrasco-Scherer

I doubt Venezuela will make a formal statement relinquishing its claim on Essequibo. However, I believe they will let the issue go unnoticed. Maduro is experiencing perhaps his greatest political crisis, with an economic and humanitarian crisis within the nation. Additionally, the US maintains support for Guyana's territorial integrity, so Maduro knows the issue could escalate to dimensions that would cost him his permanence in the already weakened government.

With top US officials pulling out of the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks in London, a short-term ceasefire scenario seems much more distant. I believe Russia feels much more comfortable negotiating this agreement with President Trump's team than with the leaders of the European Union.

In recent weeks of the Russia-Ukraine War, President Putin has launched bombing raids on the capital, kyiv, raising his stakes in keeping the conflict active. These events push back the possibility of a ceasefire in the short term. Even if a ceasefire were achieved, it would not last more than 30 days. Ukrainian society is wounded and has demonstrated for more than three years since the Russian invasion began that it will resist. A single shot is needed to end a ceasefire. This is a conflict that can only find a ceasefire if Russia withdraws entirely from Ukrainian territory, which seems absolutely impossible.

I believe the conditions for a bilateral ceasefire will not be met this summer. Despite talks between Russia and the US, in which a principle of dialogue was established that would prohibit further attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, Russia has consistently violated these initial agreements and has even increased its attacks on the civilian population in kyiv. 

Therefore, if a bilateral ceasefire agreement could be reached, I believe it would be in the last quarter of the year.