The MoM 0.2 number realized in July 2024 will be rolling off. If this July’s number is 0.2 or higher (likely) the. The YoY number is likely to be the same or higher than last month’s (2.7$”)
-0.009565
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 2.3%
35%
More than or equal to 2.3% but less than 2.6%
65%
More than or equal to 2.6% but less than 2.9%
0%
More than or equal to 2.9% but less than 3.2%
0%
More than or equal to 3.2%
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Surprising fall in one of more components that are hard to observe (housing, used cars)
Files
New Badge
Oracle - Bronze
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard 3 months in a row.
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Top Forecaster - Dec 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Kharkiv
0%
(0%)
Kyiv
0%
(0%)
Odesa
Not enough time left
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New Badge
Top Forecaster - Nov 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Time growing too short and no sign of a deal. Hez ceasefire really hasn’t been bedded down yet, either, so Israel not likely rushing to engage Hamas
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Why might you be wrong?