Bumping up slightly given recent provocations
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 62 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(+1%)
Estonia
1%
(+1%)
Latvia
2%
(+1%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Because Putin crazy
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 2.3%
35%
More than or equal to 2.3% but less than 2.6%
65%
More than or equal to 2.6% but less than 2.9%
0%
More than or equal to 2.9% but less than 3.2%
0%
More than or equal to 3.2%
Why do you think you're right?
The MoM 0.2 number realized in July 2024 will be rolling off. If this July’s number is 0.2 or higher (likely) the. The YoY number is likely to be the same or higher than last month’s (2.7$”)
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Surprising fall in one of more components that are hard to observe (housing, used cars)
Files
New Badge
Oracle - Bronze
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard 3 months in a row.
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Dec 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Kharkiv
0%
(0%)
Kyiv
0%
(0%)
Odesa
Not enough time left
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?