RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(12 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 05:51AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	99%	95%	+4%	-1%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 04:27AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	5%	+0%	-8%
No	95%	95%	+0%	+8%

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 04:29AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	98%	+1%	+0%

Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 04:32AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	20%	-10%	-1%
No	90%	80%	+10%	+1%

Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 04:33AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
U.S. Entity	95%	85%	+10%	+9%
Non-U.S. Entity	70%	56%	+14%	+2%

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(12 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 04:35AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	7%	-2%	-1%
No	95%	93%	+2%	+1%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 04:38AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	5%	5%	+0%	+0%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Georgia	3%	3%	+0%	+0%
Kazakhstan	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 04:43AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	7%	-3%	+0%
No	96%	93%	+3%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 04:48AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Latvia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Lithuania	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(12 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2025 04:20AM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	16%	-6%	-1%
No	90%	84%	+6%	+1%

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