RAND Forecasting Initiative

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2025 02:53AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2027	Jan 1, 2026	6%	-3%	-1%
No	97%	Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2027	Jan 1, 2026	94%	+3%	+1%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	17%	-7%	-4%
No	90%	83%	+7%	+4%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2025 05:02AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	87%	67%	+20%	+2%
30 days	2%	6%	-4%	+0%
31-60 days	1%	6%	-5%	+0%
61-90 days	0%	5%	-5%	+0%
91 days or more	10%	16%	-6%	-2%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 05:44AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	99%	+0%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 05:49AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	1%	-1%	-1%
No	100%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	99%	+1%	+1%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 05:49AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	98%	+1%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 05:49AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	1%	-1%	-1%
No	100%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	99%	+1%	+1%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 05:51AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	99%	96%	+3%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 04:27AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	11%	-6%	-2%
No	95%	89%	+6%	+2%

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 04:29AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	98%	+1%	+0%

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