Republican Senators have already called out the bill highlighting certain provisions as nonstarters for their own version of the bill. This makes it highly unlikely that the Senate would pass the budget reconciliation bill.
-0.009438
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Badge
Star Commenter - May 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
96%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Senators could decide there's a need to push through a bill and that any reconciliation bill is better than a delay.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
79%
Less than 30 days
8%
30 days
0%
31-60 days
0%
61-90 days
13%
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
Ceasefires are extremely difficult to maintain, and both sides have already accused the other of hundreds of ceasefire violations (CFR, "Russia, Ukraine Ceasefire Accusations", 2025). I would argue that should a ceasefire last at least 30 days, then it is far more likely that it would continue to last.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Other nations involved in these negotiations could significantly pressure both sides in support of a stronger ceasefire.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 28, 2025 08:59PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
May 28, 2025 to Nov 28, 2025
98%
No
May 28, 2025 to Nov 28, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
China is facing the prospect of an economic slowdown [Leahy, 2025, Financial Times], and it has yet to reach the date by which President Xi has asked forces to be generally prepared for an invasion (according to U.S. intelligence) [Robertson, 2024, Defense News]. These two facts make it unlikely that China would attempt this by the end of 2025.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There is always the possibility that China is prepared and could seek to use the West's current distractions and lack of cohesion as an opportunity to "reunify" with Taiwan.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 28, 2025 08:03PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
Yes
May 28, 2025 to Nov 28, 2025
50%
No
May 28, 2025 to Nov 28, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Given the historical frequency in coups in Africa and the ongoing instability, weak institutions, and in some cases foreign support for alternative leaders, there is always the possibility of a coup. Active fighting continues to occur across several nations.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is difficult to predict when one may occur and resultantly, I cannot put the probability at more than 50%. It is also difficult to assess what opportunities may arise for rebel factions from unpredictable events (natural disasters, identification of new mineral resources, etc.)
Files
Why do you think you're right?
China is currently facing concerns about economic disruptions from global economic shifts and a possible slowdown. A failed military confrontation could cause even greater upheaval and threaten the stability that the CCP uses to maintain power.
Why might you be wrong?
China may take advantage of current Indian focus on threats from Pakistan and opportunistically seek to gain ground over Indian forces.