NOAA's prediction of above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic in 2025.
0.110635
Relative Brier Score
7
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Less than or equal to 1
27%
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
53%
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Weather forecast models are extremely sensitive and can dramatically change their predictions.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There are no signs of potential military conflicts in the region, unlike those seen in April 2025.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The Pakistani government did not retaliate against India as expected and may be planning a late retaliation.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The 2025 China Victory Day Parade showed that the U.S. should support and increase military presence in allied countries in the region.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The new administration is deploying troops to other areas of interest, such as Venezuela.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
Yes
88%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, EU and U.S. sanctions are aimed at deterring Russia and leveraging economic statecraft to promote a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE are importing discounted Russian oil for both domestic consumption and refining. This could potentially result in economic sanctions from the U.S. and EU.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-13%)
Yes
98%
(+13%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
The 2025 China Victory Day Parade showcased advanced weapons and strong military troops, which are likely to deter retaliation from India.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Gen Z-led protests in Ladakh, a region bordering China, are demanding greater constitutional safeguards and statehood from India. These developments could potentially result in increased military presence in the area and raise the likelihood of new conflicts.
Files
New Badge
Why do you think you're right?
The deployment of troops by the European “Coalition of the Willing” may escalate the conflict in unpredictable ways, increasing instability in the region and raising the risk of a major conflict involving Western European nations.
Why might you be wrong?
Russia’s unwillingness to accept a peace resolution, coupled with ongoing threats of the war in Ukraine escalating to a nuclear conflict, may compel the European “Coalition of the Willing” to deploy forces.