Forecasted Questions
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 08:36PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Nov 28, 2025 08:36PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 7% | 2% | +5% | +0% |
| Not before 2026 | 93% | 98% | -5% | +1% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 08:36PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Nov 28, 2025 08:36PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026 | Dec 28, 2025 | 2% | +3% | 0% |
| No | 95% | Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026 | Dec 28, 2025 | 98% | -3% | 0% |
What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 08:44PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Nov 28, 2025 08:44PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 62% | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| More than or equal to 62% but less than 66% | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| More than or equal to 66% but less than 70% | 1% | 4% | -3% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 70% but less than 74% | 99% | 96% | +3% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 74% | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 02:36PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 02:36PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 65% | 68% | -3% | +0% |
| 30 days | 1% | 6% | -5% | +0% |
| 31-60 days | 1% | 6% | -5% | +0% |
| 61-90 days | 1% | 5% | -4% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 32% | 16% | +16% | +1% |
What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the U.S. be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 05:02PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 05:02PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $350 million | 40% | 42% | -2% | +1% |
| More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million | 35% | 35% | +0% | +2% |
| More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million | 15% | 15% | +0% | -2% |
| More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million | 5% | 5% | +0% | -1% |
| More than or equal to $650 million | 5% | 2% | +3% | +0% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 05:04PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 05:04PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 5% | 4% | +1% | +0% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | Answer was correct | |||
Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 05:06PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 05:06PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 10% | +0% | -2% |
| No | 90% | 90% | +0% | +2% |