RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 23, 2025 11:06PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
No	98%	99%	-1%	+0%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2025 06:17PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $1 billion	40%	84%	-44%	+59%
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion	25%	11%	+14%	-18%
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion	20%	3%	+17%	-25%
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion	10%	2%	+8%	-11%
More than or equal to $1.6 billion	5%	0%	+5%	-5%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 16, 2025 12:50AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	17%	17%	+0%	-5%
No	83%	83%	+0%	+5%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 16, 2025 01:34AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	33%	28%	+5%	+8%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million	37%	45%	-8%	+3%
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million	15%	22%	-7%	-6%
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million	10%	5%	+5%	-4%
More than or equal to $800 million	5%	1%	+4%	-1%

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 16, 2025 01:54AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	45%	36%	+9%	+0%
No	55%	64%	-9%	+0%

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 16, 2025 01:59AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	10%	+0%	-4%
No	90%	90%	+0%	+4%

How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 04:05PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than €0 but less than €10 billion	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion	5%	5%	0%	+0%
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion	43%	51%	-8%	+1%
€30 billion or more	51%	43%	+8%	+0%

How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 04:35PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 4,499	1%	6%	-5%	-3%
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive	18%	12%	+6%	+0%
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive	65%	75%	-10%	+2%
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive	15%	7%	+8%	+1%
More than or equal to 6,000	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 08:27PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	19%	+1%	-8%
No	80%	81%	-1%	+8%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 08:33PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026	Dec 28, 2025	1%	+2%	0%
No	97%	Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026	Dec 28, 2025	99%	-2%	0%

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