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New Prediction
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
15%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
MS wants to keep MSR Asia open because access to top Chinese AI talent is essential for MS to be competitive in this field over the long run. The growth of the industrialization and digitization of the Chinese economy will make it the largest market for AI technologies. This market will driven sustainable investment for AI research in the future. This is less true in the US where AI research will need more government subsidies to remain competitive. MS clearly wants to sell its AI technology in the largest AI market and keeping MSR Asia open is the only way to do that..
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Why might you be wrong?
The US government will see MSR Asia as a net technology transfer from US to China. Short term that might be true, but long term it is not and so far US actions on technology 'containment' of China are driven by short term thinking. MS will expect substantial government subsidies for AI research if it is forced to close MSR Asia. The mixed results of US technology 'containment' of China that has already been implemented might not dissuade the US government of forcing its closure.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
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