Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Started
Aug 03, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 30, 2024 04:59AM UTC
Closed Nov 30, 2024 04:59AM UTC
Tags
Seasons
The war in Ukraine has deepened the diplomatic relationship between Russia and Iran, expanding the arms trade between the two nations (RFERL, Newsweek). In March 2023, Iran reported that a deal had been reached on the sale of Su-35 fighter jets, and recent reports suggest they may be seeking to purchase the S-400 missile (Reuters, VOA, Jerusalem Post). Such systems have the potential to shift the balance of power in the Middle East and shore up Iran’s ability to defend against preemptive strikes (Foreign Policy, Forbes, Jamestown). However, recent news suggests that the Su-35 deal may have collapsed and that Iran is no longer pursuing the advanced missile system (Eurasia Times, Force Index).
Resolution Criteria:
The question will be resolved using credible, open source media reports. Delivery of any version of the S-400 or S-500 missile systems, or the SU-35 fighter jet will count. If there are conflicting reports about whether delivery has taken place, the INFER team will assess all open source evidence to determine whether a qualifying event has occurred.
Note that the sum of your forecasts on the missile system and fighter jets need not equal 100%.
Additional Reading:
- The S-400 Triumf (CSIS)
- The Su-35 Flanker-E Multirole Fighter (Air Force Technology)
This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Nuclear Progress.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.
Resolution Notes
On November 29, 2024, Flug Revue published a report detailing a handover ceremony on November 18 and the transport of two Su-35SE fighter jets to Iran. This reporting was later echoed by Iran International in January 2025. No credible sources have disputed the delivery, and a January 27 statement by an IRGC commander confirming the acquisition further supported the earlier reports.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 4% | |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 6% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 92 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1026 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 229 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
