norikooshea

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For forecasting on 10 questions!
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norikooshea
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This forecast expired on Nov 4, 2024 08:07PM
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Answer
Forecast Window
69%
Yes
Oct 4, 2024 to Apr 4, 2025
31%
No
Oct 4, 2024 to Apr 4, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

The increase in activity by North Korea in weapons testing supports the prediction that the types of weapons themselves may escalate. Given the intelligence of site improvements and visits to other weapons development and component sites, it is realistic that they could be preparing to test nuclear weaponry. 

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This forecast expired on Oct 27, 2024 02:03PM
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Answer
Forecast Window
65%
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
35%
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025

The progression of US presence throughout the Pacific (including the construction of new bases) necessitates a significant change in military and global positionality that they have not yet seen. Should the PLA recognize this, beyond the PRC's version of historical narrative, it could be weaponized to justify the invasion, blockade, or attack on Taiwan. In addition, powers like the US have refused to fully recognize Taiwan, further threatening its autonomy and sovereignty that in turn leaves it more vulnerable at the hands of the PLA.

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