The progression of US presence throughout the Pacific (including the construction of new bases) necessitates a significant change in military and global positionality that they have not yet seen. Should the PLA recognize this, beyond the PRC's version of historical narrative, it could be weaponized to justify the invasion, blockade, or attack on Taiwan. In addition, powers like the US have refused to fully recognize Taiwan, further threatening its autonomy and sovereignty that in turn leaves it more vulnerable at the hands of the PLA.
0.015984
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 27, 2024 02:03PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
65%
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
35%
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The increase in activity by North Korea in weapons testing supports the prediction that the types of weapons themselves may escalate. Given the intelligence of site improvements and visits to other weapons development and component sites, it is realistic that they could be preparing to test nuclear weaponry.
Why might you be wrong?