Forecasted Questions
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:45AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 02:45AM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 90% | 68% | +22% | +0% |
| 30 days | 10% | 6% | +4% | +0% |
| 31-60 days | 0% | 6% | -6% | +0% |
| 61-90 days | 0% | 5% | -5% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 0% | 16% | -16% | +0% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:46AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 02:46AM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 98% | +0% | +0% |
What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:50AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 02:50AM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $21.0 billion | 44% | 21% | +23% | +1% |
| More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion | 44% | 43% | +1% | +1% |
| More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion | 8% | 14% | -6% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion | 4% | 9% | -5% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $25.0 billion | 0% | 13% | -13% | -1% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:57AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 02:57AM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026 | Jan 1, 2026 | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026 | Jan 1, 2026 | 99% | +0% | +0% |