Forecasted Questions
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 09:18PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Nov 18, 2025 09:18PM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 0% | 67% | -67% | +0% |
| 30 days | 0% | 6% | -6% | +0% |
| 31-60 days | 0% | 6% | -6% | +0% |
| 61-90 days | 3% | 5% | -2% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 97% | 16% | +81% | +0% |
Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 09:18PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Nov 18, 2025 09:18PM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 19% | +31% | -14% |
| No | 50% | 81% | -31% | +14% |
How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 09:18PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Nov 18, 2025 09:18PM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S. | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than €0 but less than €10 billion | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion | 20% | 5% | +15% | -1% |
| At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion | 60% | 51% | +9% | +1% |
| €30 billion or more | 20% | 43% | -23% | +0% |
Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 09:18PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Nov 18, 2025 09:18PM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 36% | -36% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 64% | +36% | +0% |
Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 09:18PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Nov 18, 2025 09:18PM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 10% | -7% | +0% |
| No | 97% | 90% | +7% | +0% |
Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 09:18PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Nov 18, 2025 09:18PM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90% | 57% | +33% | -1% |
| No | 10% | 43% | -33% | +1% |
Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 09:19PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Nov 18, 2025 09:19PM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 7% | +3% | +1% |
| No | 90% | 93% | -3% | -1% |
How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 09:19PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Nov 18, 2025 09:19PM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 4,499 | 0% | 6% | -6% | -4% |
| Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive | 20% | 12% | +8% | +0% |
| Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive | 80% | 75% | +5% | +3% |
| Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive | 0% | 7% | -7% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 6,000 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |