Confirmed previous forecast
-0.224221
Relative Brier Score
228
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 18 | 228 | 228 | 228 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 91 | 91 | 91 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 18 | 41 | 41 | 41 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 4,499
20%
(0%)
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
80%
(0%)
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6,000
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Yes
10%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0%
(0%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
20%
(0%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
60%
(0%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
20%
(0%)
€30 billion or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(0%)
Yes
50%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
0%
(0%)
30 days
0%
(0%)
31-60 days
3%
(0%)
61-90 days
97%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
4%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
96%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files