probahilliby

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Contact me at [email protected]

Certified Superforecaster® at Good Judgment Inc. (Ranked #1 in 2025 Season); Metaculus Pro forecaster; forecaster for the RAND Forecasting Institute; culinarian; pharmacology.

"Surprisingly-resistant-to-regression-to-the-mean forecaster"

Questions everything but not a cynic.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Mar 19, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Microsoft's AI-powered “new Bing” be available to the public by 30 April 2023? 0.303508
Mar 17, 2023 02:12PM UTC Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023? 0.322614
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