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63rd
Accuracy Rank
shemetz
shemetz
About:
programmer, nerd, planning to live in a post scarcity utopia
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Seasons
2025 Season
2020 Season
2024 Season
2021 Season
2023 Season
2022 Season
Artificial Intelligence
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
Emerging Technology
Forecaster Submissions
Formerly on Foretell
Geopolitical Security
Global AI Race: Talent, Research, and Tech
How Will the U.S. Technology Sector Develop in the Coming Years?
Immigration
Industry
INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
Iran: Threats & Influence
Issue Campaign: U.S. Department of Defense - Silicon Valley Relationship
Microelectronic Technologies
Public Attitudes
Quickfire Forecasts
Research
Russia-Ukraine War
Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector
The Water Cooler
U.S.-China
Africa
Biotech
China Lithography
Cybersecurity
Decoding Disinformation
EA College Tournament
East Asia Security
Economic Debt
Emerging Tech - AI
Future Bowl
Government Investment
Iran Nuclear Program
Iran-VNSAs
Manufacturing
MENA
metric-question
Microelectronics
Mirror Life
Mission: AI Advancement
Mission: Diplomacy
Open RAN
Quantum Computing
Russia-Europe
Russian Disinformation
semiconductors
Semiconductor Supply Chain
Syria
U.S. tech sector
Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC
How many incidents of political violence will occur in Gaza in August 2025?
-0.008064
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC
Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025?
-0.0066
Jun 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 2, 2025 and Jun 2, 2025)
0.000206
May 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 28, 2025 and May 28, 2025)
0.00068
Apr 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 28, 2025 and Apr 28, 2025)
0.002216
Apr 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 2, 2025 and Apr 2, 2025)
0.001497
Mar 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 28, 2025 and Mar 28, 2025)
0.000557
Mar 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 2, 2025 and Mar 2, 2025)
0.001543
Feb 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 28, 2025 and Feb 28, 2025)
0.000484
Jan 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 2, 2024 and Jan 2, 2025)
0.000813
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