RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?	0.0
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC	By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?	-0.000006
Dec 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 28, 2024 and Dec 28, 2024)	-0.000013
Apr 02, 2024 03:00PM UTC	Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024?	0.002792
Mar 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?	0.0
Feb 26, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will Hezbollah launch a missile that impacts more than 10 kilometers into Israel over the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 26, 2024 and Feb 26, 2024)	-0.050874

sigis