By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Started Jul 27, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC

Uranium is typically enriched to 90% U-235 or higher (commonly called "weapon-grade uranium") for use in nuclear weapons (Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, Union of Concerned Scientists). Iran promised to curtail uranium enrichment to less than 4% as part of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (i.e., the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” or “JCPOA”), but it stepped back from these commitments in retaliation for attacks on Iranian leaders and the U.S. withdrawal from the agreement (Council on Foreign Relations, U.S. Institute of Peace). Following the U.S.' withdrawal, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, the European Union, and Iran remained participants in the JCPOA. 

Although Iran has increasingly limited monitoring and verification of its nuclear program, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) continues to report on its JCPOA commitments (Reuters, Politico). In February of 2023, it reported that it had found particles containing up to 83.7% enriched uranium (IAEA, NBC).


Resolution Criteria:
The question will be resolved based on IAEA reports about Iran’s nuclear program, which are posted here. The IAEA report must indicate that the IAEA found uranium particles containing 90% or more U-235 at an Iranian nuclear facility.  

This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Nuclear Progress.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 100
Average for questions older than 6 months: 61
Number of Forecasts 1029
Average for questions older than 6 months: 233
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.005199
2.
-0.004399
3.
-0.003794
4.
-0.003512
5.
-0.003452

Consensus Trend

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username