Confirmed previous forecast
0.232875
Relative Brier Score
277
Forecasts
14
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 27 | 288 | 277 | 908 |
| Comments | 0 | 8 | 150 | 147 | 189 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 26 | 54 | 50 | 97 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 16 | 14 | 108 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 4,499
7%
(0%)
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
84%
(0%)
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
7%
(0%)
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6,000
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
19%
(-5%)
Yes
81%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating slightly below the crowd's assessment as the specificity of such law makes it less likely to be implemented.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The UK might take that direction.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files