Highly unlikely. The cut-off date is around 100 days from today, and regulation hurdles will for sure take significantly much longer to sort out.
0.229469
Relative Brier Score
283
Forecasts
15
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 6 | 31 | 290 | 283 | 914 |
| Comments | 6 | 12 | 156 | 153 | 195 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 28 | 54 | 52 | 99 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 16 | 15 | 109 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(+24%)
Yes
1%
(-24%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
The conflict is clearly escalating.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(+37%)
Yes
25%
(-37%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
More likely than not at this point.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Swift meditation might take place.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
38%
(+35%)
Yes
62%
(-35%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating due to the surge of violence - 10 casualties reported as of today.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This conflict could potentially die down in the upcoming days with no more deaths.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
0%
(-1%)
18
1%
(-6%)
17
99%
(+7%)
16 or fewer
Why do you think you're right?
Aligning with the crowd.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA.
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 4,499
7%
(0%)
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
84%
(0%)
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
7%
(0%)
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6,000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
In addition to what has been said, operations towards the capital might take place, but the deadline is just too tight. Strategically, it would make more sense to consolidate the control of the Heglig oilfield before taking up such an ambitious advance towards Khartoum.
Why might you be wrong?
The access to the oil resources might expedite an advance.