137th

Accuracy Rank

alter_hugo

Hugo

About:

Feel free to contact me at [email protected].

I started forecasting a year ago after reading Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. I also participate in Good Judgement Open - find me at @alter_hugo.

Active Forecaster

Power Forecaster - Nov 2025

Star Commenter - Nov 2025

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Forecasted Questions

Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 03:05PM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	11%	16%	-5%	-18%
No	89%	84%	+5%	+18%

Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 03:06PM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	3%	-1%	+1%
No	98%	97%	+1%	-1%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 07:18PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2027	Feb 27, 2026	5%	-4%	-1%
No	99%	Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2027	Feb 27, 2026	95%	+4%	+1%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 07:18PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	7%	-6%	+0%
No	99%	93%	+6%	+0%

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 07:18PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
No	98%	98%	+0%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 07:18PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	0%	6%	-6%	+0%
Armenia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Georgia	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Kazakhstan	0%	1%	-1%	0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 07:18PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026	Dec 27, 2025	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026	Dec 27, 2025	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 07:18PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
No	99%	97%	+2%	+0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 07:18PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026	Dec 27, 2025	1%	+0%	-1%
No	99%	Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026	Dec 27, 2025	99%	+0%	+1%

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 07:18PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%