Forecasted Questions
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 07:24PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 27, 2025 07:24PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026 | Dec 27, 2025 | 1% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 99% | Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026 | Dec 27, 2025 | 99% | +0% | +1% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts
22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 07:24PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 27, 2025 07:24PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026 | Dec 27, 2025 | 0% | +0% | -2% |
| No | 100% | Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026 | Dec 27, 2025 | 100% | +0% | +2% |
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 07:25PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 27, 2025 07:25PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 07:25PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 27, 2025 07:25PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 4,499 | 1% | 5% | -4% | -4% |
| Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive | 7% | 12% | -5% | +0% |
| Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive | 84% | 76% | +8% | +3% |
| Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive | 7% | 6% | +1% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 6,000 | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 07:30PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Dec 09, 2025 07:30PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 17 | 1% | 0% | +1% | +0% |
| 16 or fewer | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in at least 20 deaths between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 16, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 16, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 12, 2025 03:04PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Dec 12, 2025 03:04PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 99% | 94% | +5% | +16% |
| No | 1% | 6% | -5% | -16% |
Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2025 01:26PM UTC
(11 hours ago)
Dec 15, 2025 01:26PM UTC
(11 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 5% | -4% | +2% |
| No | 99% | 95% | +4% | -2% |
Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2025 01:48PM UTC
(11 hours ago)
Dec 15, 2025 01:48PM UTC
(11 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 3% | +3% | +0% |
| No | 94% | 97% | -3% | +0% |