Confirmed previous forecast
-0.154812
Relative Brier Score
1073
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 34 | 138 | 1117 | 1073 | 4763 |
| Comments | 3 | 6 | 161 | 153 | 213 |
| Questions Forecasted | 34 | 34 | 90 | 76 | 178 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 175 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Less than $1 billion
7%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.6 billion
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
(0%)
Yes
45%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Togo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
22%
(0%)
Yes
78%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
1%
(0%)
18
1%
(0%)
17
98%
(0%)
16 or fewer
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
Yes
60%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
63%
(0%)
Yes
37%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Recent signs (H200 to China) suggest No.
Why might you be wrong?
If AGI (or close) is achieved, all bets are off