Confirmed previous forecast
-0.475046
Relative Brier Score
4737
Forecasts
175
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 8 | 126 | 1091 | 1047 | 4737 |
| Comments | 1 | 7 | 159 | 151 | 211 |
| Questions Forecasted | 8 | 33 | 89 | 75 | 177 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 175 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Emerging Technology,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Artificial Intelligence
Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program,
Iran-VNSAs,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Decoding Disinformation,
Semiconductor Supply Chain
New Prediction
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2027
95%
(0%)
No
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2026
100%
(+1%)
No
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Less than 2 weeks left
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
1%
(-1%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
99%
(+1%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Less than 2 weeks left
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
68%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
3%
(0%)
30 days
11%
(0%)
31-60 days
10%
(0%)
61-90 days
8%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
100%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Less than 2 weeks. Going All-In
Files
Why might you be wrong?
With Trump you can never be sure
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-10%)
Less than $21.0 billion
48%
(+8%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
25%
(+1%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
11%
(+1%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
6%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Why do you think you're right?
updating
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Less than $1 billion
7%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.6 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
(0%)
Yes
45%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files