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Top Forecaster - Feb 2024

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Forecasted Questions

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
77 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 09:20PM UTC
(9 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	3%	-3%	0%
Latvia	0%	2%	-2%	0%
Lithuania	0%	2%	-2%	0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
72 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 09:20PM UTC
(9 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	5%	5%	+0%	0%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	0%
Georgia	3%	3%	+0%	0%
Kazakhstan	1%	1%	+0%	0%

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 09:20PM UTC
(9 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	0%
No	99%	98%	+1%	0%

Will mirror organisms be formally addressed as a biosecurity concern in official proceedings of at least one of the following international forums (BWC Review Conference, G7/G20 Health/Science ministerial meetings, WHO forums) by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 09:21PM UTC
(9 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	63%	63%	+0%	+0%
No	37%	37%	+0%	+0%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
47 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 09:21PM UTC
(9 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	2%	3%	-1%	0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	98%	96%	+2%	0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	0%	2%	-2%	0%

Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 09:22PM UTC
(9 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	55%	45%	+10%	+0%
No	45%	55%	-10%	+0%

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 09:22PM UTC
(9 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	15%	-5%	+0%
No	90%	85%	+5%	+0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
67 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 09:24PM UTC
(9 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	3%	+3%	0%
No	94%	97%	-3%	0%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
32 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 09:24PM UTC
(9 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	7%	-1%	0%
No	94%	93%	+1%	0%

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 09:25PM UTC
(9 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	0%