RAND Forecasting Initiative

What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 02, 2025 11:52PM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $21.0 billion	20%	14%	+6%	-7%
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion	40%	52%	-12%	+10%
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion	24%	11%	+13%	-3%
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion	10%	7%	+3%	-3%
More than or equal to $25.0 billion	6%	15%	-9%	+3%

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 08:21PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	9%	-7%	-1%
No	98%	91%	+7%	+1%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 08:23PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	68%	68%	+0%	+1%
30 days	3%	5%	-2%	+0%
31-60 days	11%	5%	+6%	+0%
61-90 days	10%	5%	+5%	+0%
91 days or more	8%	16%	-8%	+0%

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 08:23PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025	0%	0%	+0%	0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025	0%	0%	+0%	0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025	0%	0%	+0%	0%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
Not before 2026	98%	98%	+0%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
81 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 08:24PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2026	Jan 9, 2026	0%	+1%	+0%
No	99%	Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2026	Jan 9, 2026	100%	-1%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
39 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 08:24PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2027	Mar 9, 2026	5%	+0%	+0%
No	95%	Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2027	Mar 9, 2026	95%	+0%	+0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
61 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 08:24PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	3%	+5%	+0%
No	92%	97%	-5%	+0%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
33 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 08:26PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
No	98%	98%	+0%	+0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
42 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 08:26PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2026	Jan 9, 2026	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2026	Jan 9, 2026	99%	+0%	+0%

How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 08:26PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.	0%	1%	-1%	+1%
More than €0 but less than €10 billion	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion	0%	6%	-6%	+1%
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion	49%	49%	+0%	-2%
€30 billion or more	51%	43%	+8%	+1%

martinsluis

About: