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Forecasted Questions

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 09:25PM UTC
(18 hours ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 15% 12%
No 85% 88%

Will mirror reagents or products be added to the Australia Group export control list or national controlled biological agent lists in the U.S., UK, or Canada by 31 December 2032?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 09:25PM UTC
(18 hours ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 40% 28%
No 60% 72%

Will any country announce a new national carbon tax or emissions trading system by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 09:28PM UTC
(18 hours ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 43% 62%
No 57% 38%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
45 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 09:29PM UTC
(18 hours ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 20% 16%
No 80% 84%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 09:30PM UTC
(18 hours ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $1 billion 90% 93%
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion 7% 6%
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion 2% 1%
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion 1% 0%
More than or equal to $1.6 billion 0% 0%
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