Recent signs (H200 to China) suggest No.
-0.071711
Relative Brier Score
1763
Forecasts
106
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 35 | 132 | 1118 | 1074 | 4764 |
| Comments | 3 | 4 | 161 | 153 | 213 |
| Questions Forecasted | 35 | 35 | 91 | 77 | 179 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 175 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If AGI (or close) is achieved, all bets are off
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Less than $1 billion
7%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.6 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
(0%)
Yes
45%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Togo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
22%
(0%)
Yes
78%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
1%
(0%)
18
1%
(0%)
17
98%
(0%)
16 or fewer
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
Yes
60%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I'm going below the crowd as I think the most likely candidates already have some form of carbon tax and this question has a life of 7 months. Crucially the resolution states "A country must not already have a carbon pricing mechanism for a new carbon tax or national emissions trading system (ETS) to count"
Why might you be wrong?