im putting the odds here at near zero because i think the russian military is so beaten down that they dont stand a chance against NATO. at this point i think the pole or even the swis could take the russians they are so depleted.
-0.060104
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Forecasts
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Estonia
1%
(-1%)
Latvia
1%
(-3%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
i could be underestimating the ambition of putin (and his grasp of the reality of his military's situation)..
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(+18%)
Yes
75%
(-18%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
with so many countries that have sats and so much conflict i think the odds are a lot higher. than the crowd is putting on this event.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
who knows anything? and even if a sat is taken out, there is a good chance the hoi poli never even hear about it.
Files
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Dec 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Why do you think you're right?
judging by copper prices, i think that there already is a pickup in their economy. further, while the Chinese are world-class savers, i think that the consumer spending will exceed expectations - and drive growth (just like the CCP wants).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
can you trust the numbers coming out of china? how long and variable is the lag and relationship between stimulus and spending? who really knows anything?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
1%
(-19%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
99%
(+19%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
i dont think he wants peace. he rejected a proposal that was pretty close to what he wanted.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
there are long tail possibilities i am discounting. putin could drop dead or there could be a coup, or ...
Files
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
Why do you think you're right?
i am going against the grain on this one. i foresee stimulus, but more importantly, resilience and adaptability in their economy.
Why might you be wrong?
who knows anything? and can we really trust the numbers the CCP puts out anyway?