Confirmed previous forecast
2.777467
Relative Brier Score
133
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 13 | 281 | 241 | 2510 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 86 | 61 | 663 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 13 | 50 | 37 | 259 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 296 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 6, 2025 to Jun 6, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 6, 2025 to Jun 6, 2026
Show more
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 6, 2025 to Jun 6, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 6, 2025 to Jun 6, 2026
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Togo
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
98%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
1%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 6, 2025 to Jun 6, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 6, 2025 to Jun 6, 2026
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
2%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 17, 2025 to May 17, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 17, 2025 to May 17, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 17, 2025 to May 17, 2027
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 17, 2025 to May 17, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files