Confirmed previous forecast
2.891755
Relative Brier Score
2523
Forecasts
296
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 5 | 220 | 5 | 2523 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 50 | 2 | 667 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 5 | 31 | 5 | 259 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 296 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Emerging Technology,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Artificial Intelligence,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Microelectronics,
Iran-VNSAs,
Manufacturing
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
2%
(0%)
Lithuania
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Reducing further
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-10%)
Yes
90%
(+10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Reducing considerably
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
98%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
1%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
2%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 18, 2026 05:05AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2027
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files