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New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Dec 1, 2025 01:03PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Moldova
0%
(-2%)
Armenia
3%
(-2%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Success in Georgian protests
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(+1%)
Estonia
1%
(+1%)
Latvia
1%
(+1%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Very unlikely but not impossible.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
5%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 14, 2025 01:01PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-5%)
Yes
Aug 14, 2025 to Feb 14, 2026
100%
(+5%)
No
Aug 14, 2025 to Feb 14, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Time update. Still very unlikely.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Surpirse attack.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
5%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files