Forecasted Questions
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 03:07PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 28, 2025 03:07PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 17% | -9% | -1% |
| No | 92% | 83% | +9% | +1% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts
19 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 11:51PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 28, 2025 11:51PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 12:38AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 29, 2025 12:38AM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 01:08AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 29, 2025 01:08AM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 7% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 93% | +2% | +0% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 01:37AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 29, 2025 01:37AM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Nov 29, 2025 to May 29, 2026 | Dec 29, 2025 | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | Nov 29, 2025 to May 29, 2026 | Dec 29, 2025 | 98% | +1% | +0% |