Forecasted Questions
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 27, 2025 06:46AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Aug 27, 2025 06:46AM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | 16% | +84% | -11% |
| No | 0% | 84% | -84% | +11% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2025 10:15PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Sep 29, 2025 10:15PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 3% | -3% | -1% |
| Latvia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2025 10:20PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Sep 29, 2025 10:20PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Entity | 100% | 86% | +14% | +4% |
| Non-U.S. Entity | 72% | 56% | +16% | +16% |
Will any national government publicly declare that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been achieved within that country by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2025 09:14PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Dec 31, 2025 09:14PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 85% | 2% | +83% | -1% |
| No | 15% | 98% | -83% | +1% |