milenamegre

If it is a full and final ceasefire, it may last relatively long. However, I do not believe it will without some infractions, as it always have been the case between Russia and Ukraine. This conflict has been going on since 2014, and even when they seemed o have reached an agreement regarding Crimea, there was an ongoing conflict happening between them, exchanging violence. Therefore, I believe the likeliness of a total break of the ceasefire is smaller, since neither Russia or Ukraine have much more to gain in reigniting a new wave of war if they reach a final ceasefire consensus agreement. If it is just a temporary ceasefire, then my forecast would change to 30 days or less. 

There is no sign of progress, nor consensus or even improvement of relations. Russia just claimed to have regained control of Kursk. Besides, Trump is also focused on other problems such as the tariff wars. It will take time to reach the slightest possibility of consensus for this to happen

Reaching a consensus is already pretty difficult, as we have seen in the past years, and both sides don't seem to be on the same page at all even 3 years later. To reach that point, it will take several rounds of negotiation, which will take time. Then, if and when they do reach an agreement, I believe it will be close enough to the end of the second half of the year, and its implementation will be postponed to 2026. 

Due to the difficult nature of reaching a ceasefire, if Zelensky would agree to (since he's at a clear disadvantage) to a truce, his partners (EU countries) would follow through with him. And even if he changes his mind later, he won't be able to act alone without his European partners. And I believe that once this matter is settled, the EU will focus on using its budget to rebuild Europe and strengthen it, and not go to a second phase of animosities. As for Russia, it will probably get an advantageous ceasefire deal, and it is not interesting for Russia to resurface this issue again.