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Roy_C
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Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
May 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 28, 2025 and May 28, 2025)
0.01978
Apr 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 28, 2025 and Apr 28, 2025)
0.018281
Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)
0.042804
Oct 26, 2024 03:29AM UTC
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between May 10, 2024 and Oct 26, 2024)
-0.246793
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
0.303619
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
0.001909
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?
0.071749
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023?
-0.052379
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?
-0.155487
Jul 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023?
0.083196
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?
-0.264508
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?
-0.14647
Feb 01, 2023 06:46PM UTC
Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?
0.092756
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