Forecasted Questions
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2025 07:00PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Nov 01, 2025 07:00PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40% | 17% | +23% | -2% |
| No | 60% | 83% | -23% | +2% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 01:06PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 01:06PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 91% | 68% | +23% | +0% |
| 30 days | 0% | 6% | -6% | +0% |
| 31-60 days | 9% | 6% | +3% | +0% |
| 61-90 days | 0% | 5% | -5% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 0% | 16% | -16% | +0% |