Forecasted Questions
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2025 07:15PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Sep 22, 2025 07:15PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Sep 22, 2025 to Mar 22, 2027 | Dec 22, 2025 | 5% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 95% | Sep 22, 2025 to Mar 22, 2027 | Dec 22, 2025 | 95% | +0% | +1% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2025 07:16PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Sep 22, 2025 07:16PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | -1% |
| No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +1% |
Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2025 07:16PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Sep 22, 2025 07:16PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | 9% | +61% | -27% |
| No | 30% | 91% | -61% | +27% |