Confirmed previous forecast
-0.000195
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 139 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 32 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
70%
(0%)
Yes
30%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 22, 2025 to Mar 22, 2027
95%
(0%)
No
Sep 22, 2025 to Mar 22, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Buzan
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Overestimating Buzan
Files
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Dec 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 17, 2025 11:01AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 17, 2025 to Jan 17, 2026
90%
(0%)
No
Jan 17, 2025 to Jan 17, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Interest rates will drop, this doesn't happen usually. Very little geopol risk.
Files