Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Started Jan 26, 2024 08:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 13, 2025 06:32PM UTC

After Hamas’ attack on 7 October 2023, concerns that a broader regional war could follow increased substantially (EU Council on Foreign Relations, Axios). Recent attacks in the region, both on Iran and by Iranian proxies on other targets, have raised concerns that a regional war will break out with Iran at its center (ABC, USIP, Semafor). However, some believe that such a war in the region wouldn’t suit Iran’s interests, and is thus unlikely despite rising tensions (CNN, New York Times). 

Resolution Criteria:  
This question will be resolved as “Yes” if Iran declares war on another country, Iran’s senior political or military leaders (e.g., the Supreme Leader, the President, a commander of one of Iran’s Armed Forces, etc.) state that they are at war with another country, or if another country declares war on Iran. Military activity without such a declaration or statement will not count towards resolution. Iran lending military support to another country or organization engaged in war will also not count towards resolution unless Iran engages in warfare directly. Military engagement between Iran and non-state entities will not count towards resolution. 
Resolution Notes

On June 13th, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that Israel had initiated a war with Iran. This declaration followed Israel's launch of a major air and missile campaign against Iran targeting nuclear and military infrastructure. Iran has retaliated with drone and missile strikes against Israel, and the two countries have since continued engaging in open conflict.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-supreme-leader-says-israel-initiated-war-2025-06-13/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWLPPxWyX2k
https://apnews.com/article/israel-attack-iran-strike-nuclear-us-news-5adea3ffa51264e0c7c803d8acfde338

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 29%
No 71%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 140
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 1237
Average for questions older than 6 months: 229
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Scored Periods

Scores for forecasts between Final Crowd Forecast
Jan 26, 2024 08:00PM UTC - Apr 26, 2024 07:00PM UTC 14%
Apr 26, 2024 07:00PM UTC - Jun 13, 2025 06:32PM UTC 29%

Consensus Trend

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