Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 26, 2024 and Jun 13, 2025)
Started
Apr 26, 2024 07:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 13, 2025 06:32PM UTC
Closed Jun 13, 2025 06:32PM UTC
After Hamas’ attack on 7 October 2023, concerns that a broader regional war could follow increased substantially (EU Council on Foreign Relations, Axios). Recent attacks in the region, both on Iran and by Iranian proxies on other targets, have raised concerns that a regional war will break out with Iran at its center (ABC, USIP, Semafor). However, some believe that such a war in the region wouldn’t suit Iran’s interests, and is thus unlikely despite rising tensions (CNN, New York Times).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved as “Yes” if Iran declares war on another country, Iran’s senior political or military leaders (e.g., the Supreme Leader, the President, a commander of one of Iran’s Armed Forces, etc.) state that they are at war with another country, or if another country declares war on Iran. Military activity without such a declaration or statement will not count towards resolution. Iran lending military support to another country or organization engaged in war will also not count towards resolution unless Iran engages in warfare directly. Military engagement between Iran and non-state entities will not count towards resolution.
Resolution Notes
On June 13th, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that Israel had initiated a war with Iran. This declaration followed Israel's launch of a major air and missile campaign against Iran targeting nuclear and military infrastructure. Iran has retaliated with drone and missile strikes against Israel, and the two countries have since continued engaging in open conflict.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-supreme-leader-says-israel-initiated-war-2025-06-13/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWLPPxWyX2k
https://apnews.com/article/israel-attack-iran-strike-nuclear-us-news-5adea3ffa51264e0c7c803d8acfde338
This question is a resolved time period from Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 29% | |
| No | 71% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 140 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 61 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1237 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 233 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
