Confirmed previous forecast
0.784509
Relative Brier Score
19
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 5 | 19 | 19 | 44 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 18 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
63%
(0%)
Yes
37%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
53%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
47%
(0%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(0%)
Moldova
35%
(0%)
Armenia
50%
(0%)
Georgia
20%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
65%
(0%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
63%
Yes
37%
No
Why do you think you're right?
After the conflict between Israel and Hamas, and seeing the Israeli military power, other nations close to the region might take this opportunity to reinforce security between themselves.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A new multilateral security agreement could be seen as a threat by other nations, resulting new tensions across the region, bringing insecurity other than security.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 30, 2025 11:53PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
53%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2026
47%
(0%)
No
Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(0%)
Moldova
35%
(0%)
Armenia
50%
(0%)
Georgia
20%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
They probably will not, due to their politics leaned to the right, aligned to the United States.