Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 6 | 6 | 30 | 6 | 55 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 7 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 20 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
10%
(0%)
18
40%
(0%)
17
50%
(0%)
16 or fewer
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(0%)
Iván Cepeda
16%
(0%)
Sergio Fajardo
28%
(0%)
Abelardo de la Espriella
6%
(0%)
Other
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
63%
(0%)
Yes
37%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(0%)
Moldova
35%
(0%)
Armenia
50%
(0%)
Georgia
20%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
10%
(0%)
18
40%
(0%)
17
50%
(0%)
16 or fewer
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Iván Cepeda
16%
Sergio Fajardo
28%
Abelardo de la Espriella
6%
Other
Why do you think you're right?
I think I'm right because at the moment, Ivan Cepeda is the most consolidated name for the 2026 Colombian Poll, as well as the left-wing in Colombia are growing up under Petro government.
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Why might you be wrong?
I might be wrong because the right-wing still have a great amount of electors, as it was by far, the dominant wing in Colombia. However, colombians might reject both extremes and put Fajardo on as president, leaning to a moderate government, able to dialogue with both sides around the world.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
63%
(0%)
Yes
37%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 31, 2026 01:27AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
53%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
47%
(0%)
No
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The US might not have interest in hurry the situation at Venezuela, by replacing the president and announcing a new election.
Why might you be wrong?