13th
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Elenedhel

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025? -0.088853
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025? 0.068168
Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM UTC Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024? 0.297282
Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025? 0.07798
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024? -0.000235
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated? 0.778269
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024? 0.091767
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA? 0.602454
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")? 0.000298
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024? -0.000562
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months? 0.026468
Dec 01, 2024 05:01AM UTC Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days? -0.384611
Oct 26, 2024 03:29AM UTC Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between May 10, 2024 and Oct 26, 2024) -0.29222
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024) -0.372707
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024) -0.404641
Sep 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 28, 2024 and Sep 28, 2024) -0.000148
Sep 14, 2024 07:00PM UTC Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 14, 2024 and Sep 14, 2024) 0.003032
Aug 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 29, 2024 and Aug 28, 2024) -0.00006
Aug 02, 2024 05:29AM UTC Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025? 0.348464
Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM UTC For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%? 0.0
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