Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 14, 2024 and Sep 14, 2024)
Started
Jun 14, 2024 07:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 14, 2024 07:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 14, 2024 07:00PM UTC
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Widespread anti-government protests and health concerns surrounding Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have led to speculation over how long he will continue as Supreme Leader of Iran (NBC News, New York Times). At the same time, his recent increase in public appearances, pardoning of arrested protestors, and efforts to restore ties with Saudi Arabia are seen by some as attempts to solidify support for his regime (Financial Times, Reuters).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using reputable news media reports and will resolve “Yes” if Ali Khamenei ceases to be supreme leader of Iran or flees the country (regardless of whether he still claims to be Supreme Leader). Examples of events that could resolve the question include his resignation, replacement, death, or exile.
This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Nuclear Progress.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.
This question is a resolved time period from Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | |
| No | 96% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 90 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 61 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 403 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 233 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
