Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Closed Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
Question clarification
Regarding the sentence in the resolution criteria that said, "Consequently, this question will be resolved as “Yes” unless he voluntarily leaves office, dies, or someone else is sworn in as President before 11 January 2025, even if he is not physically in the country," the "he" in both instances refers specifically to Nicolás Maduro. This sentence means that Maduro leaving the country would not necessarily count as him no longer being president unless he voluntarily leaves office, dies, or someone else is sworn in in his stead. The resolution criteria has been updated to make that clear.
In the event that there are competing claims on the Presidency (e.g., if both Maduro and González are sworn in by different groups claiming to be the legitimate government of Venezuela), the President will be considered the one operating out of Miraflores Palace, the official head office of the President of Venezuela, with the assumption that this is Nicolás Maduro unless credible reports indicate otherwise.
Nicolas Maduro was sworn in for a new term as president on 10 January 2025.
https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-president-maduro-inauguration-41df1203ab06e1ee9168622d12aac461
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp8qn9qpl1go
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 99% | |
No | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 109 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
Number of Forecasts | 698 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 227 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |