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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 233 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 66 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 30, 2026 06:59PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 30, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 30, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(-5%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(+5%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Given Russia's confortable position with it's successfull war effort, it is unlikely a ceasefire will take effect soon, given the US and Ukraine's enduring resistance to terms which are key for Russia. They can continue to win the conflict and drag it out until a perceived victory or until its enemies are willing to accept it's terms. Recent war developments only confirm Russia's favorable position in detriment to Ukraine's weakening.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If an unlikely scenario takes place in which Russia starts to lose the conflict, a ceasefire may take place sooner than expected.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 30, 2025 12:30PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
5%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
95%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
There is not a single reasonable motive for Rússia to invade one of these countries, as it would not benefit it in any manner. It would indeed create a much largar conflict with other nations.
Why might you be wrong?
If one of these countries attacks Russia, it may respond with an invasion.